Anatomia unui faliment geopolitic by Vitalie Ciobanu

To contrast with the dramatic fall in Russian #gassupplies, EU #LNG imports were up by a staggering 89% in the third quarter - amounting to 32 bcm. It recalls that #NordStream definitively terminated its operations in September as a result of sabotage. #Russian #pipelinegas imports from July to September were down by 74% relative to the same period in 2021 (though #Belarus by 96%, via #NordStream1 by 85%, through #Ukraine by 63%, only increasing via the #TurkStream, by 21%).

According to the European Commission’s #gasmarket #report on Q3 2022, Russian #gasexports to #Europe was the dominant element on #EU #energymarkets.

The profitability of shipping to #Europe, however, has also decreased and now favors #Asia throughout most of the year.

Lower LNG landing prices are also tracking #TTFprices, which have more than halved over the last month.

The February price for LNG delivered ex-ship (or DES) was last assessed late on Thursday at USD 19.49/MMbtu, down week on week from USD 21.73/MMbtu and its lowest since 27 October. Discounts for cargoes for February delivery were assessed last at USD 1.67/MMbtu, up from USD 0.60/MMbtu seen a week ago, which was the narrowest against the TTF since December 2021, when it hit USD 0.10/MMbtu. Montel Group has published on Friday that the front-month price of #LNG, including delivery costs, to northwestern Europe hit a 10-week low due to falling #hubprices and increased #regasification capacity, data from Spark Commodities showed.The start of the year has seen a decline in #gasprices and #LNGprices, putting less stress on gas inventory levels and sending the #benchmark #gasprice at the #Dutch #TTF hub down 14% since the end of 2022. An important factor is China and how the #covid wave there will affect the #economy and the #gasdemand in Europe. #GoldmanSachs expects storage facilities to remain at least 20% full by the end of March 2023, while #energyresearch consultancy Wood Mackenzie said an unusually cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere could reduce #European #gasinventories to 4% of total capacity by March. A number of factors are at play keeping Europe in a better position than they were last year: milder temperatures than usual, reduced #heating demand, a high #storage rate and more #supply available due to a mostly absent #China from the #spot market. The #gasstorage levels in most EU countries are well above their five-year averages, but key questions depend on how European reserves will be refilled after winter, assuming Russian supplies aren't resumed. #Gasprices in #Europe have fallen to pre-Ukraine invasion levels, and it seems we might avoid a full-blown #energycrisis this winter.Below, there is a short review on what happened this week on European gas market (09/01-).

Anatomia unui faliment geopolitic by Vitalie Ciobanu